The Wall Street Journal put on a full-court press of inflation blather yesterday, shilling the Fed and a mainstream consensus that higher prices for everything loom in our future. The other headline, atop a column by one Ken Brown, read as follows: In response, I offer the chart above. If inflation were coming, the long-term bond would reflect it with a bearish chart bond yields correlate inversely with price.

Does the chart look bearish? Even to someone who knows nothing about charts, T-bond futures look like they are headed to the moon. Bonds, currently around 2. This implies that anyone betting on inflation, as Mr. Brown has suggested, is going to get killed. Betting on deflation, on other hand, offers some of the juiciest odds that can be found in the investment world.

The Journal embarrasses itself when it implies that a rate hike is still possible. When the Fed tried to pretend it could walk the walk a couple of months ago, raising administered rates by a token 25 basis points, it set off a panic in global markets that could conceivably have snowballed into a crash like the one in Ben, thanks for your thoughts. I have to disagree, however.

Everyone has fallen for their line. Inflation is monetary, period. Houses are still down from the peak in most of the country, I think. We can have a stock market crash, yet the cost of Wheaties and milk go up.

Betting on inflation? Don't bet on gold - MarketWatch

WE ARE LIVING IT. Also, velocity has gone down due to the fears of asset price collapses, not due to the fear that the money supply will go down. Fergusson said that the German officials did not set out to cause hyper inflation. They were responding to the calls from the unions and others that the workers DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH MONEY, despite the printing presses running overtime.

Do you see something in common with our situation and Weimar? I think that hyper inflation is never a policy choice, as Rick cogently points out. Be that as it may, I cannot understand why people who bemoan the wild expansion of credit keep talking about deflation. Unless and until the credit bubble bursts, this is obviously inflationary. I make no predictions. How is a mystery to me. Hyper inflationists never like to discuss the nitty-gritty details, Mary.

Having read Fergusson, you must be aware that the Weimar hyperinflation was propagated with physical cash money. But just try to play that forward. Anyone who would argue the case for hyperinflation should be made to explain first of all what will happen to mortgage debt.

Will we someday peel a few megabills from our money clips to pay the balance due on our homes? They all pay in cash, as you know, and trying to hyperinflate away their obligations — i. This article fudges disaster. It correctly talks about how pension obligations will continue to grow exponentially.

As things stand, the former will be working until they are 80 to pay the benefits of tens of millions who have retired, or are about to retire, at The taxpayers will ultimately win for one simple reason: It may seem a contradiction of terms, but we do in fact suffer the effects of deflation as much if not more than the effects of inflation.

This is so, because every single fraction of a penny that comes into existence does so through the creation of a debt. Debt burden has a deflation-like effect, in that people have even less to cope with, let alone spend, in face of inflation.

We get the worst of both worlds, as predicted by Thomas Jefferson…. I am going to work on a spreadsheet, starting right after the Thanksgiving Coup of , listing year by year the major events that got us to this fine mess. You know, like the end of 3 cent postage stamps, the end of silver coins, the end of 20 cent gas, the end of guys celebrating when they reached the maximum contribution to SS for the year! Not to mention when we had a positive trade balance, last one was in I believe!

Oh, as well as the introduction of Credit Cards in , and Casino Gambling outside of Vegas, and the State Lotteries! Some historians maintain, only half jokingly, that Southern Italy never really recovered from Hannibal.

It is beginning to look like the USA will never recover from the path LBJ led us down 52 years ago. In either case, or even half and half, anyone over 50 years of age will agree it has been a catastrophe for sure! How about the War on Poverty? Rick, Do higher bond prices really mean deflation? The fed is manipulating the full yield curve. Taxes up, insurance UP, education up, repairs up. You must be joking.

The FED and friends are running a grand psyop, manipulating all interest rates, goosing asset prices with easy money and buying futures—think oil, gas, grains. But we can have low interest rates, high bonds prices and a higher cost of living. Click here for a help page needed as a Hidden Pivot Graduate. Click here for a special deal for graduates of the Hidden Pivot Course who want to stay on the cutting edge.

Start Subscription Lost my password. The technique entails identifying ultra-low-risk trade set-ups on, say, the one-minute bar chart, and then initiating trades in places where competition tends to be thin. The three-hour Hidden Pivot Course is offered live each month.

The next webinar will be held on Tuesday, June Click below to register or get more information. Home About Chat Room Subscribe Website Help Contact Us Events Calendar Hidden Pivot Lounge. In other words, the Western oligarchs are doing the exact same thing as the Weimar officials.

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Chuck D April 29, , 9: Ben April 29, , 2: John Jay April 28, , 2: War on Poverty indeed! You saw it all, just like I did! How far we have fallen since then!

John Jay April 28, , Hidden Pivot Graduate Help Page Click here for a help page needed as a Hidden Pivot Graduate. Keep Your Skills Current Click here for a special deal for graduates of the Hidden Pivot Course who want to stay on the cutting edge. Login User Name Password Start Subscription Lost my password.

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